000K  utf8
1100  $c2023
1500  eng
2050  urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2023-00308-4
2051  10.3390/ijerph20085543
3000  Schütt, Eike M
3010  Hundsdörfer, Marie A J
3010  Koschmider, Agnes
3010  Lange, Xaver
3010  Oppelt, Natascha
3010  von Hoyningen-Huene, Avril J E
4000  First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of Vibrio vulnificus in the Baltic Sea  [Schütt, Eike M]
4209  Over the last two decades, Vibrio vulnificus infections have emerged as an increasingly serious public health threat along the German Baltic coast. To manage related risks, near real-time (NRT) modelling of V. vulnificus quantities has often been proposed. Such models require spatially explicit input data, for example, from remote sensing or numerical model products. We tested if data from a hydrodynamic, a meteorological, and a biogeochemical model are suitable as input for an NRT model system by coupling it with field samples and assessing the models' ability to capture known ecological parameters of V. vulnificus. We also identify the most important predictors for V. vulnificus in the Baltic Sea by leveraging the St. Nicolas House Analysis. Using a 27-year time series of sea surface temperature, we have investigated trends of V. vulnificus season length, which pinpoint hotspots mainly in the east of our study region. Our results underline the importance of water temperature and salinity on V. vulnificus abundance but also highlight the potential of air temperature, oxygen, and precipitation to serve as predictors in a statistical model, albeit their relationship with V. vulnificus may not be causal. The evaluated models cannot be used in an NRT model system due to data availability constraints, but promising alternatives are presented. The results provide a valuable basis for a future NRT model for V. vulnificus in the Baltic Sea.
4950  https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20085543$xR$3Volltext$534
4950  https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2023-00308-4$xR$3Volltext$534
4961  https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00003627
5051  333.7
5051  550
5051  570
5550  Baltic Sea
5550  Baltic States
5550  Climate change
5550  Humans
5550  Near Real-time Modelling
5550  Network Inference
5550  Oxygen
5550  Public Health Risk
5550  St. Nicolas House Analysis
5550  Vibrio Infections
5550  Vibrio vulnificus
5550  Vibrio vulnificus
5550  Water