000K utf8 1100 $c2023 1500 eng 2050 urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2023-00308-4 2051 10.3390/ijerph20085543 3000 Schütt, Eike M 3010 Hundsdörfer, Marie A J 3010 Koschmider, Agnes 3010 Lange, Xaver 3010 Oppelt, Natascha 3010 von Hoyningen-Huene, Avril J E 4000 First Steps towards a near Real-Time Modelling System of Vibrio vulnificus in the Baltic Sea [Schütt, Eike M] 4209 Over the last two decades, Vibrio vulnificus infections have emerged as an increasingly serious public health threat along the German Baltic coast. To manage related risks, near real-time (NRT) modelling of V. vulnificus quantities has often been proposed. Such models require spatially explicit input data, for example, from remote sensing or numerical model products. We tested if data from a hydrodynamic, a meteorological, and a biogeochemical model are suitable as input for an NRT model system by coupling it with field samples and assessing the models' ability to capture known ecological parameters of V. vulnificus. We also identify the most important predictors for V. vulnificus in the Baltic Sea by leveraging the St. Nicolas House Analysis. Using a 27-year time series of sea surface temperature, we have investigated trends of V. vulnificus season length, which pinpoint hotspots mainly in the east of our study region. Our results underline the importance of water temperature and salinity on V. vulnificus abundance but also highlight the potential of air temperature, oxygen, and precipitation to serve as predictors in a statistical model, albeit their relationship with V. vulnificus may not be causal. The evaluated models cannot be used in an NRT model system due to data availability constraints, but promising alternatives are presented. The results provide a valuable basis for a future NRT model for V. vulnificus in the Baltic Sea. 4950 https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20085543$xR$3Volltext$534 4950 https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:gbv:8:3-2023-00308-4$xR$3Volltext$534 4961 https://macau.uni-kiel.de/receive/macau_mods_00003627 5051 333.7 5051 550 5051 570 5550 Baltic Sea 5550 Baltic States 5550 Climate change 5550 Humans 5550 Near Real-time Modelling 5550 Network Inference 5550 Oxygen 5550 Public Health Risk 5550 St. Nicolas House Analysis 5550 Vibrio Infections 5550 Vibrio vulnificus 5550 Vibrio vulnificus 5550 Water