Modelling the epidemiology and control of foot and mouth disease with special emphasis on airborne spread

In the present study a spatial and temporal Monte-Carlo simulation model for foot and mouth disease epidemics is described. The virus transmission via direct animal contacts, indirect personel and vehicle contacts, local and airborne transmission were included as well as different control strategies. With help of a sensitivity analysis the robustness of the model was evaluated and risk factors for the disease transmission identified. The model was used to evaluate emergency vaccination as an alternative control strategy to preventive culling. Finally, fuzzy logic was used to estimate the airborne transmission of the foot and mouth disease virus.


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