Essays in Macroeconomics and Forecasting

Schwarzmüller, Tim

This dissertation thesis consists of three academic papers. The first paper analyses the macroeconomic effects of labor market reforms in Spain and the spillovers to the rest of the euro area using a two country monetary union DSGE model. The second paper provides a thorough assessment of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation in a dynamic general equilibrium model for the US economy. The third paper studies the performance of single predictor bridge equation models as well as a wide range of model selection and pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting of euro area GDP growth.

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Schwarzmüller, Tim: Essays in Macroeconomics and Forecasting.

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