Modelling of agriculture and climate policies : Impacts of cooperation on sustainability and economic growth

In this dissertation, the economic effects of different climate policy regimes are quantified using ex-ante modelling, with a focus on cooperative policy measures. The work makes three distinct contributions (1) a methodological contribution through the development of a Bayesian calibration method for reference scenarios in dynamic computable general equilibrium models (CGE) (2) a systematic review (qualitative and empirical) of the vast literature on CO2 pricing (3) the modelling and analysis of the effects of climate policy measures in the context of the Paris Agreement using DART.

The specific policy relevant questions that are explored through the modelling work are -what are the channels through which countries incur mitigation costs of climate policies? What are the economic impacts of cooperation in reaching the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDC) via an ETS and who will the winners and losers be? If the EU and China decide to link their respective ETSs then what policy design, if at all, would maximize the gains from linking for both EU and China and what impacts do changes in trade barriers have on the linking? What is the range of cost estimates from the modelling studies for reaching the goals of Paris Agreement and how can the divergence in costs across models be explained? Would carbon egalitarianism lead to monetary transfers to the developing countries and how large will these transfers be? Is there carbon leakage from the EUETS and if yes, then do technological advancement in renewables and electricity grids, mitigation targets in non-ETS sectors and behavioral changes in consumers help mitigate the leakage?

Overall, the dissertation makes contributions to questions of cost savings through internationally coordinated CO2 pricing while looking at specific regional cooperation. It also combines econometric tools to extract deeper insights from the CGE literature on CO2 pricing. 


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