Modeling the Dynamics of Long-Term Variability of Hydro-Climatic Processes and Associated Extreme Events in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia

Earth's hydrological cycles have been modified during the past four decades by anthropogenic, hydro-climatic, and geological forces. Long-term variability must be comprehended for sustainable water resources management, climate adaptation, and disaster risk reduction. The Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia is under large-scale land use change due to population pressure, urbanization, and agriculture, along with uncertain climate dynamics. This study examines hydro-climate variables, land use dynamics, and their effects on hydrology using machine learning, hydrologic modeling (SWAT+), change point analysis, and bathymetry surveys.

Land use dynamics during the period between 1989 and 2019 experienced a 27.5% increase in agriculture while natural vegetation, wetlands, and water bodies decreased. The climate analysis reflected a non-significant reduction in rainfall but significant increase in temperature. These alterations, driven mostly by population growth and agricultural practice, altered water availability. Hydrological simulation indicated reduced precipitation, evapotranspiration, and infiltration, and increased surface runoff from 2000 to 2005 compared to 1989–2000. Land use change was a more dominant factor than climate fluctuation.

Southern basin lakes expanded, and northern lakes shrunk. The surface area of Lake Chamo increased by 30 km², and Lake Abijata lost 68% of its surface area due to water abstraction and reduced inflows. The findings indicate rising human-induced stresses on the hydrological system of the basin, and the need for sustainable water management. The study provides useful information on long-term hydro-climatic dynamics, with implications for similar data-scarce regions.

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Ayalew, A.D., 2025. Modeling the Dynamics of Long-Term Variability of Hydro-Climatic Processes and Associated Extreme Events in the Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia.
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