Enhanced extreme sea level information for flood risk assessments along the German Baltic coast
Accurate assessments of flood risk are vital for efficient adaptation to extreme sea level (ESL) induced coastal floods. A major source of uncer- tainty surrounding coastal flood risk are those associated with the estima- tion of ESLs and their probabilities. Given limited sea level observations, uncertainty is an inherent feature of ESL estimation — leading to misallo- cated resources, higher adaptation costs, reduced flood risk mitigation, or even counterproductive outcomes if ignored. Nevertheless, statistical and numerical techniques can enhance available sea level information, adding greater value to flood risk assessments and enabling more efficient adapta- tion planning. This dissertation explores a number of techniques to provide enhanced ESL information for coastal flood risk along the German Baltic Sea coast. Specifically, this thesis (1) models ESL hydrographs, simulating not only the peak water level of extreme events but also their temporal evolution, (2) incorporates historical information into the analysis of ESLs to improve estimates of ESLs, and (3) demonstrates how these enhanced in- formation can be used to perform probabilistic flood modelling, providing a comprehensive assessment of flood exposure.
Preview
Rights
Use and reproduction:
Please note that individual components of the publication may be subject to other licensing or copyright conditions.