Geopolitical Tensions and Migration

In this paper, we examine the complex relationship between geopolitical tensions and migration, developing a framework to explore how these dynamics shape each other. We argue that geopolitical risks – such as wars, terrorism, and international disputes – are related in three ways to migration: Risks affecting the determinants of migration decisions, the reverse channel of migration influencing geopolitical risks, and the direct use of migration as a geopolitical tool. We then discuss the transmission channels and how country characteristics can affect the strength of effects. We highlight that geopolitical risks likely result in greater irregular migration and displacement in the long run and emphasize the importance of cross-country cooperation.